After the recent moves up, the supply of short-term holders has increased to 92% in profit, the highest level since May and November of 2021. This is actually quite bearish.

Surely, after finally seeing some glimpse of green drops in the ocean of red is very refreshing but we should not lose our mind due to this and just blindly follow every move up right now. While indeed a lot of indicators (like the Supertrend, miner sellings, Realized price etc.)have formed bullish signals for the first time since perhaps over a year. There have also been bearish signals forming now, that we should not ignore.

One of them is very easy to understand as we should know that most smaller rallies are mostly in the control of short-term holders (STH) as they buy in low and can sell for profit once the rally is high and they are in profits. An on-chain metric related to this is the STH supply in profit. Its obvious that once a short-term holder is in pretty good profit they will sell, thats why its called a short-term holder.

Imported from Glassnode

This metric for the STH supply shows that 92% of it is now in profit, which is a very high number. This number can only be compared to two times during 2021 and both were the forming of local tops. During May 2021, which was the peak of the previous bull market hype-wise many would say and the Mountain-Top as many say. The next time was during November 2021 which was our double top at $69k

I know that it may be very alluring to look at all those bullish patterns and signals forming but we should not forget to look at the wider picture. With that, a pull-back in the near future is not unlikely as we can already see that the BTC Price is exhausting at near $23k right now.

submitted by /u/partymsl
[link] [comments]

This post was originally published on this site