Hey guys,

I’m wondering what you think will happen to BTC when the next halving hits in 2024. You know the drill: every four years, the block reward gets cut in half, making new coins harder to mine and more scarce. This usually pumps the price up like crazy .

But here’s the problem: the world is heading towards a recession, maybe even a depression. Everything is messed up: inflation, debt, trade wars, you name it . A recession means less money for everyone: less spending, less investing, less jobs, less confidence.

So how will this affect the BTC halving? Will it be a safe haven that people flock to when fiat currencies lose value? Or will it be a risky asset that people dump when they need cash? Will more people use BTC as a way to pay or save? Or will they ignore it or even outlaw it because of regulations?

Let’s look at some history for clues:

  • The first halving was on Nov. 28, 2012. The price went from $12 to $1,207 in a year. The world was recovering from the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
  • The second halving was on July 9 ,2016. The price went from $650 to $19 ,783 in 18 months. The world was growing moderately and had low inflation.
  • The third halving was on May 11 ,2020. The price went from $8 ,566 to $64 ,863 in 11 months. The world was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.

What do you think will happen in 2024? Let me know your predictions and opinions below.

submitted by /u/Mjohnsen-realm
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