This isn't to say you should or shouldn't make an attempt at swing trading, do whatever you want to do with your money/crypto. Trading isn't for everyone and the majority of people will usually be more successful just DCAing and hodling.

Alot of people seem to have exit plans but not entry plans, that's not good. If you have no entry plan you leave yourself more at risk to fomo back into the market or completely miss the bottom and buy back into the market during a layer bull phase higher than you sold.

Personally I like using onchain data and particularly data that shows what the whales and miners are doing on a macro scale. You can tout it as falling for the manipulation tricks if you want to but the fact is that swimming with whales is usually more profitable than swimming against them, and any glassnode chart showing a moving average of the number of whales with x coins will show that.

When whales and miners start to become net sellers it usually suggests that a correction or price drop is soon to come, and when they become net buyers during an accumulation period it usually suggests a pump might be on the cards in the mid to long term.

Other onchain indicators include reserve risk, pi cycle top, NUPL (net unrealised profit loss), LTH (long term holders (1 year+) supply.

Rainbow regression bands are also a easily utilisable signal for good times to buy and good times to take profit and if you watch Ben Cowen you've probably seen that before.

The fear and greed index is also a great signal if you flip it and buy during fear periods and take profits during greed periods, keep in mind however that the index can potentially remain at any one option for months on end.

Even if you don't want to take profits or sell any positions and would prefer to DCA for the next 30 years without selling a single Satoshi, you can still utilise these indicators by increasing your DCA amount during low risk times and decreasing or even stopping it during high risk times to make the most of your DCA.

What I would be looking to do personally involves a small amount of analysis on the charts and onchain data to give me confidence in what I think the charts are telling me. If BTC goes to $150k or higher before January/February my assumption will be that the market is too overheated and a correction is due, nearer the time I will be watching the previously mentioned onchain metrics to help me get a better idea.

I will be looking to buy back in after a 50% correction or price point of between $40k-$70k, whichever comes first and again will be using the same indicators to gauge risk and try to figure out if it is a good time to accumulate.

submitted by /u/j0-hn-dea-ux
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